Images of war are not always confined to collapsing piles of rubble, flames, and thick plumes of smoke; sometimes, war’s darker face is found in the heavy silence of factories, the shuttered storefronts of shops, and the mass layoffs of workers. The reality is that today, the pulse of war beats in the darkened pages of online businesses and at the increasingly modest, diminished dinner tables of ordinary people.
Iran’s economy, already grappling with runaway inflation, declining purchasing power, energy shortages, and a deep investment crisis, has now become more fragile than ever under the pressure of military attacks. This report seeks to shed light on the less visible dimensions of these shocks: from disruptions in supply chains and liquidity crises to internet shutdowns (state-imposed restrictions or near-total disruptions of access to the global internet), which serve as the lifeline of modern commerce. Drawing on the experience of the war in Ukraine, we also attempt to address a central question: what kind of future awaits Iran’s economy as it confronts this military deadlock?
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